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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
GH · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
iLTW · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 17 games
82%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 16 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
70%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
473 picks · 278 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 541 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 511 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
359 picks · 477 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 490 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 519 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 350 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 190 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Nigma Galaxy 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealeriLTW
44% · 162 games49% · 224 games
Tinydyrachyo
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMiracle-
47% · 340 games65% · 55 games
Keeper of the LightBOOM
Keeper of the Light
Viper
ViperMinD_ContRoL
49% · 92 games46% · 331 game
MarsAce
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
46% · 268 games57% · 217 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
45% · 137 games56% · 172 games
BaneSeleri
Bane
Game 2prediction missed33:11
Nigma Galaxy 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaiLTW
50% · 147 games53% · 214 games
Tinydyrachyo
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingMiracle-
45% · 225 games48% · 219 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
52% · 278 games47% · 256 games
SnapfireBOOM
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingKuroKy
48% · 109 games50% · 102 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Io
IoGH
51% · 303 games55% · 271 game
BanetOfu
Bane
Game 3prediction correct24:38
Nigma Galaxy 35%Gaimin Gladiators 65%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMiracle-
53% · 18 games48% · 158 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightiLTW
53% · 37 games41% · 55 games
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
55% · 46 games35% · 34 games
JakiroAce
Jakiro
Pangolier
PangolierMinD_ContRoL
56% · 156 games42% · 62 games
Earth SpirittOfu
Earth Spirit
Weaver
WeaverKuroKy
53% · 187 games55% · 135 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3