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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 16 games
69%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 9 games
89%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
75%

Wildcard Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Sunlight · 8 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
DaaD- · 6 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
The Warden · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
476 picks · 278 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 514 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
359 picks · 477 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 492 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
291 picks · 519 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 190 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 351 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:18
TSM 79%Wildcard Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 40:52.
Game 2prediction correct40:8
TSM 79%Wildcard Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 22:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 79%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2