Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dreamersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
473 picks · 277 bans
Mars
394 picks · 540 bans
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 513 bans
Weaver
358 picks · 476 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 487 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 517 bans
Grimstroke
273 picks · 190 bans
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
SG e-sports 49%Dreamers 51%
The model gave 51% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 46:00.
Game 3prediction correct9:41
SG e-sports 49%Dreamers 51%
The model gave 51% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 21:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 51%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2