Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
472 picks · 277 bans
Mars
391 picks · 538 bans
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 511 bans
Weaver
358 picks · 475 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 484 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 515 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 344 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
Fnatic 61%Nigma Galaxy SEA 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 39:14.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Fnatic 61%Nigma Galaxy SEA 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 33:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 61%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2