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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 10 games
40%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 8 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 7 games
29%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
AhFu · 7 games
43%

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
45%
Weaver
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
471 picks · 277 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 537 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 510 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
357 picks · 475 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 483 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 343 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total57% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:25
Team SMG 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoon
57% · 103 games48% · 67 games
Phantom LancerKarma丶
Phantom Lancer
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
52% · 80 games47% · 175 games
Death ProphetEnryu
Death Prophet
Weaver
WeaverAhFu
49% · 91 game51% · 55 games
EarthshakerJing
Earthshaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritninjaboogie
43% · 23 games
Game 2prediction missed18:26
Team SMG 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMidOne
45% · 93 games51% · 55 games
Nature's ProphetEnryu
Nature's Prophet
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoon
57% · 61 game53% · 190 games
TinyKarma丶
Tiny
Io
IoAhFu
52% · 67 games46% · 91 game
TuskJing
Tusk
Bane
Baneninjaboogie
50% · 115 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 57%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2