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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stratyk Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arkosh Gaming

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%

Stratyk Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
470 picks · 275 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 536 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 506 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
356 picks · 474 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 478 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 342 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 64%
Hero pool strength62% Stratyk Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Stratyk Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:23
Arkosh Gaming 42%Stratyk Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 38:43.
Game 2prediction correct10:28
Arkosh Gaming 42%Stratyk Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 23:46.
Game 3prediction missed41:20
Arkosh Gaming 42%Stratyk Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 35:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteStratyk Gaming · 58%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3