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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Balrogs

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
94%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
73%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 13 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 11 games
91%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Matthew · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
469 picks · 275 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 535 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 504 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
356 picks · 473 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 477 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 341 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 78%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:47
Balrogs 11%Thunder Awaken 89%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 42:17.
Game 2prediction correct21:52
Balrogs 11%Thunder Awaken 89%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 89%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2