Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoPing VPNloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Snapfire
Accel · 16 games
Banesignature
Accel · 12 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 12 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 10 games
Iosignature
KJ · 10 games
Miranasignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 9 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
468 picks · 275 bans
Mars
388 picks · 535 bans
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
356 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
309 picks · 476 bans
Kunkka
287 picks · 513 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Wolf Team 35%NoPing VPN 65%
The model gave 65% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 30:05.
Game 2prediction correct20:31
Wolf Team 35%NoPing VPN 65%
The model gave 65% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 43:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 65%
Series resultWolf Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2