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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
46%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Io
Iosignature
1ls · 9 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 8 games
50%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
465 picks · 274 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 534 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 503 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
355 picks · 476 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 475 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 337 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 189 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 72%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:29
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 51:54.
Game 2prediction missed33:22
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:32.
Game 3prediction correct10:35
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 35:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 62%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3