Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
Grimstroke
Febby · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 6 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 5 games
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
Marssignature
kpii · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hyde · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
461 picks · 275 bans
Mars
389 picks · 533 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 505 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 474 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 512 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 335 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:24
TNC Predator 39%Talon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 50:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYowe
Medusa23savage
BristlebackYoungGodLevi
Storm SpiritMikoto
BrewmasterBok
Dragon Knightkpii
BaneFebby
Monkey KingHyde
54% · 253 games
WeaverQ
Game 2prediction correct6:28
TNC Predator 41%Talon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYoungGodLevi
Morphling23savage
BeastmasterBok
NecrophosMikoto
Ember SpiritYowe
Brewmasterkpii
SilencerFebby
Monkey KingHyde
49% · 240 games
BaneQ
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 67%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2