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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 6 games
33%
Lich
Lich
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
461 picks · 275 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 532 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 502 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 475 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 474 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
286 picks · 510 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 333 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 188 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
simply TOOBASED 33%Team DogChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 41:35.
Game 2prediction correct17:34
simply TOOBASED 33%Team DogChamp 67%
The model gave 67% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 67%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2