Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomersloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Marssignature
Sunlight · 8 games
Lunasignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 4 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Rubick
The Warden · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 275 bans
Mars
384 picks · 531 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 501 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 471 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 331 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:34
4 Zoomers 75%Wildcard Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 28:42.
Game 2prediction correct35:9
4 Zoomers 75%Wildcard Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 42:09.
Game 3prediction missed11:32
4 Zoomers 75%Wildcard Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:38.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 75%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3