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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 15 games
80%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 15 games
87%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 12 games
83%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 12 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 14 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
45%
Weaver
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 273 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 524 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 504 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 471 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 462 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
286 picks · 506 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 187 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 328 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 43%
Hero pool strength63% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total86% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
BOOM Esports 72%Neon Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
54% · 160 games51% · 30 games
Anti-MageKarma丶
Anti-Mage
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
50% · 81 game51% · 326 games
MarsEnryu
Mars
Razor
RazorFbz
47% · 151 game51% · 152 games
IoJing
Io
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
43% · 33 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
49% · 83 games
Game 2prediction correct27:9
BOOM Esports 71%Neon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 23:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
44% · 58 games48% · 83 games
Anti-MageKarma丶
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
54% · 81 game55% · 155 games
BloodseekerEnryu
Bloodseeker
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
40% · 65 games50% · 98 games
TuskJing
Tusk
Weaver
WeaverTims
61% · 70 games
Abaddon
AbaddonSkem
45% · 62 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 86%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2