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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
64%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 7 games
86%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 6 games
17%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
cml · 8 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 273 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 524 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 503 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 473 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 460 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
286 picks · 507 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 186 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 327 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:52
Team SMG 34%Polaris Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 52:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
50% · 252 games50% · 190 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Tiny
TinyMidOne
54% · 261 game52% · 287 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
52% · 284 games44% · 309 games
Snapfirecml
Snapfire
Bane
Baneninjaboogie
54% · 298 games47% · 77 games
ViperForce
Viper
46% · 232 games
Monkey KingBoomy
Monkey King
Game 2prediction missed29:20
Team SMG 35%Polaris Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoon
52% · 249 games44% · 170 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorMidOne
57% · 228 games45% · 192 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
44% · 327 games50% · 415 games
MarsForce
Mars
Bane
Baneninjaboogie
54% · 351 game51% · 249 games
IoBoomy
Io
53% · 129 games
Tuskcml
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed24:19
Team SMG 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoon
46% · 200 games53% · 98 games
DoomForce
Doom
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMidOne
52% · 211 games49% · 147 games
RazorNatsumi
Razor
Elder Titan
Elder TitanAhFu
52% · 109 games51% · 180 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Bane
Baneninjaboogie
54% · 281 game47% · 170 games
HoodwinkBoomy
Hoodwink
46% · 206 games
Iocml
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 76%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3