Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 4 games
Bane
Overlom · 3 games
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 16 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
450 picks · 272 bans
Mars
381 picks · 523 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 460 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 507 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
The Cut 31%TSM 69%
The model gave 69% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
HuskarTimado
Techiesbgod
Storm Spiritbryle-
BaneOverlom
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
54% · 112 games
Monkey KingMoonMeander
46% · 91 game
Death ProphetDuBu
Game 2prediction correct33:54
The Cut 32%TSM 68%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
Death Prophetbryle-
Skywrath Magebgod
Chaos KnightTimado
IoOverlom
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
42% · 95 games
PangolierMoonMeander
55% · 45 games
JakiroDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 83%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2