Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
450 picks · 272 bans
Mars
380 picks · 523 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 459 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 507 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:14
Gambit Esports 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:25.
Game 2prediction missed22:30
Gambit Esports 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 51%
Series resultGambit Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2