Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
No Monkey Business
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Razoroften banned
xannii · 4 games
Bane
antoha · 3 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
MieRo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
449 picks · 271 bans
Mars
379 picks · 521 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 501 bans
Weaver
353 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 457 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 506 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 185 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:23
AS Monaco Gambit 61%No Monkey Business 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 44:10.
Game 2prediction missed14:42
AS Monaco Gambit 61%No Monkey Business 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 44:33.
Game 3prediction missed36:16
AS Monaco Gambit 61%No Monkey Business 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 36:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 61%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3