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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 18 games
33%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Victoria · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 12 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 12 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 11 games
45%

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 11 games
73%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 10 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
70%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 271 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 519 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 499 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 472 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 453 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
285 picks · 504 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 319 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 79%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:15
Vici Gaming 35%Xtreme Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomIrving
46% · 87 games62% · 134 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Lone Druid
Lone Druidpoyoyo
little data52% · 125 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Viper
ViperXm
46% · 94 games50% · 113 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYds
48% · 153 games47% · 60 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVictoria
47% · 238 games54% · 140 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct10:19
Vici Gaming 35%Xtreme Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
52% · 179 games63% · 170 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXm
47% · 64 games48% · 137 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomIrving
47% · 117 games47% · 100 games
Dark SeerELeVeN
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYds
42% · 92 games52% · 178 games
WeaverPyw
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVictoria
45% · 202 games56% · 69 games
Shadow ShamanDy
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 72%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2