Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 13 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Qupe · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Max · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
449 picks · 271 bans
Mars
378 picks · 521 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 500 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 474 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 452 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 504 bans
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 318 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 186 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Alliance 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:49.
Game 2prediction correct28:2
Alliance 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 18:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 62%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2