Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
449 picks · 272 bans
Mars
377 picks · 523 bans
Queen of Pain
370 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
289 picks · 446 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 502 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:27
Shenzhen 49%Ybb Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 56:01.
Game 2prediction correct35:38
Shenzhen 49%Ybb Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 1:11:21.
Game 3prediction correct27:17
Shenzhen 49%Ybb Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 38:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 51%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3