?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 35 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
73%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 20 games
70%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 21 game
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 20 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
584 picks · 917 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 286 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1042 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 574 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 664 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 561 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Tundra Esports 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
46% · 351 game50% · 347 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
52% · 271 game42% · 348 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batrider33
50% · 404 games49% · 388 games
Marspma
Mars
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
52% · 232 games48% · 504 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Tiny
TinyAri
52% · 425 games61% · 96 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed14:37
Tundra Esports 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaParker
51% · 153 games43% · 126 games
Weavergotthejuice
Weaver
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
48% · 82 games58% · 76 games
KezNiku
Kez
Tiny
Tinybzm
44% · 347 games51% · 294 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
56% · 206 games52% · 37 games
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
47% · 138 games53% · 393 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed13:39
Tundra Esports 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
50% · 334 games50% · 161 game
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Doom
Doom33
55% · 146 games41% · 334 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
54% · 187 games54% · 477 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyAri
45% · 409 games50% · 617 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
49% · 594 games55% · 81 game
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3