Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Axesignature
Zore · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 5 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 272 bans
Mars
376 picks · 520 bans
Queen of Pain
370 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
289 picks · 444 bans
Kunkka
283 picks · 502 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:36
Felt 37%KBU.US 63%
The model gave 63% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Felt in 43:24.
Game 2prediction missed38:13
Felt 37%KBU.US 63%
The model gave 63% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Felt in 31:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 63%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2