Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Apes Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Apes Esports
Grimstroke
Lym- · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dalul · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 1 game
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Hoodwink
Lym- · 1 game
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 497 bans
Mars
370 picks · 517 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 436 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 499 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:20
Team Apes Esports 31%RSG 69%
The model gave 69% on RSG — the game was taken by RSG in 34:07.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
Team Apes Esports 31%RSG 69%
The model gave 69% on RSG — the game was taken by RSG in 30:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 69%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2