Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Michael · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 6 games
Marssignature
PiPi · 6 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Bane
Prada · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 4 games
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 500 bans
Mars
368 picks · 516 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 481 bans
Death Prophet
284 picks · 431 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 497 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 182 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Infamous 56%Lava 44%
The model gave 56% on Infamous — the game was taken by Lava in 38:15.
Game 2prediction missed18:48
Infamous 56%Lava 44%
The model gave 56% on Infamous — the game was taken by Lava in 1:05:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 56%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2