PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 31 game
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Marssignature
ATF · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 18 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 16 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
Muertasignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
581 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
478 picks · 420 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 509 bans
Warlock
426 picks · 284 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1037 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 573 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 662 bans
Mars
384 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Team Falcons 80%Team Nemesis 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarLorenof
LargoJabz
Dragon KnightSkiter
Ursa23savage
MarsATF
WindrangerMac
MuertaCr1t-
PhoenixJaunuel
Shadow ShamanSneyking
TinyQ
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Team Falcons 80%Team Nemesis 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSkiter
Muerta23savage
Ember SpiritLorenof
Storm SpiritMac
DoomATF
BrewmasterJabz
HoodwinkCr1t-
TuskQ
Shadow ShamanSneyking
LargoJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2