Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Marssignature
Noticed · 17 games
Jakiro
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Weaversignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Bane
forcemajor · 11 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 11 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 9 games
Ursasignature
Daxak · 9 games
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
376 picks · 497 bans
Mars
366 picks · 506 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 482 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 422 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 182 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:59
Winstrike Team 62%AS Monaco Gambit 38%
The model gave 62% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 54:02.
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Winstrike Team 62%AS Monaco Gambit 38%
The model gave 62% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 35:00.
Game 3prediction correct26:7
Winstrike Team 62%AS Monaco Gambit 38%
The model gave 62% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 62%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3