Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
Banesignature
y` · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 14 games
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 9 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 266 bans
Queen of Pain
376 picks · 496 bans
Mars
367 picks · 505 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 482 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 493 bans
Death Prophet
273 picks · 422 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 180 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 301 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 42%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total91% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
LGD Gaming 91%Team MagMa 9%
The model gave 91% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:04.
Game 2prediction correct28:29
LGD Gaming 91%Team MagMa 9%
The model gave 91% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 55:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 91%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2