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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 26 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
70%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
56%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
580 picks · 920 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 508 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
425 picks · 283 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1036 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 573 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 663 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 558 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:38
Xtreme Gaming 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
52% · 100 games50% · 329 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
54% · 433 games51% · 148 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
42% · 125 games47% · 262 games
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenxNova
57% · 213 games52% · 231 game
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanfy
51% · 393 games44% · 294 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
38% · 208 games53% · 85 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 221 game50% · 180 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Largo
LargoXxs
60% · 62 games52% · 144 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Warlock
WarlockxNova
49% · 276 games47% · 217 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
55% · 165 games50% · 306 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct13:35
Xtreme Gaming 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
45% · 118 games47% · 235 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 445 games56% · 236 games
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Visage
VisageXxs
43% · 3 games47% · 143 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Tiny
Tinyfy
50% · 448 games52% · 529 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
52% · 206 games57% · 77 games
Nyx Assassinrue
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3