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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 6 games
33%
Lich
Lich
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 265 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
376 picks · 497 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 507 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 484 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
282 picks · 491 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
274 picks · 419 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 178 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 300 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 26%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
Quincy Crew 84%Team DogChamp 16%
The model gave 84% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:09.
Game 2prediction missed35:10
Quincy Crew 84%Team DogChamp 16%
The model gave 84% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 24:36.
Game 3prediction missed56:31
Quincy Crew 84%Team DogChamp 16%
The model gave 84% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 51:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 84%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3