Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 7 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 6 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 264 bans
Queen of Pain
376 picks · 497 bans
Mars
363 picks · 507 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 482 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 491 bans
Death Prophet
273 picks · 418 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 178 bans
Ember Spirit
253 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 44%
Hero pool strength65% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total92% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:4
Evil Geniuses 92%simply TOOBASED 8%
The model gave 92% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 19:58.
Game 2prediction missed4:26
Evil Geniuses 92%simply TOOBASED 8%
The model gave 92% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 20:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 92%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2