?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 5 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 264 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
375 picks · 495 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 506 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 482 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 491 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
270 picks · 415 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 178 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
251 picks · 298 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
YNT 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkLord^
48% · 174 games40% · 194 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDominic
53% · 188 games56% · 83 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
52% · 80 games48% · 104 games
Sand KingTheChosenOne
Sand King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanjesv
56% · 31 game55% · 132 games
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Oracle
OracledSa
42% · 54 games60% · 14 games
Crystal MaidenVANSKOR
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1