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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
No Sorrywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 5 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
dSa · 3 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 3 games
67%

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 7 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 5 games
20%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
y0nd · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 264 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
377 picks · 495 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
359 picks · 505 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 484 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 491 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
269 picks · 412 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 177 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 299 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% YNT
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:28
YNT 56%No Sorry 44%
The model gave 56% on YNT — the game was taken by No Sorry in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
49% · 168 games52% · 46 games
JuggernautDinozavrik
Juggernaut
Lifestealer
LifestealerDarkLord^
53% · 134 games46% · 126 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingDominic
50% · 173 games47% · 248 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magejesv
52% · 46 games48% · 105 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnadSa
56% · 38 games53% · 34 games
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 60%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1