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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 18 games
56%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 17 games
41%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 10 games
30%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
579 picks · 916 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
478 picks · 419 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 505 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
423 picks · 280 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1032 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 572 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 662 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 555 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:28
OG 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkNatsumi
47% · 55 games51% · 167 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
41% · 352 games48% · 146 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Largo
LargoForce
45% · 56 games56% · 239 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Tiny
TinyTims
50% · 336 games60% · 68 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSkem
48% · 98 games56% · 277 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct28:16
OG 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
50% · 252 games48% · 144 games
Weavershiro
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
56% · 470 games46% · 341 game
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderForce
52% · 309 games54% · 126 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSkem
57% · 165 games43% · 599 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Tusk
TuskTims
50% · 591 game45% · 577 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed32:44
OG 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 57:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNatsumi
43% · 267 games53% · 150 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
49% · 409 games53% · 391 game
PuckXm
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
50% · 215 games50% · 209 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Lion
LionTims
46% · 98 games50% · 210 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSkem
49% · 24 games60% · 53 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3