Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 0:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 5 games
Dark Willow
y0nd · 4 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 4 games
Nemiga Gaming
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 29 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
Rubick
Heaven · 21 game
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
Disruptor
VANSKOR · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
436 picks · 264 bans
Queen of Pain
377 picks · 495 bans
Mars
357 picks · 505 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 484 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 489 bans
Death Prophet
268 picks · 411 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 177 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:29
No Sorry 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyDinozavrik
TerrorbladeKiritych
Void SpiritWorick
PangolierAinkrad
SlardarLastHero-
MarsTheChosenOne
Hoodwinky0nd
PhoenixHeaven
OracleBLACKARXANGEL
BaneVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1