Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Snapfire
RR · 8 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 494 bans
Mars
356 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 485 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 483 bans
Death Prophet
264 picks · 407 bans
Grimstroke
259 picks · 175 bans
Ember Spirit
248 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Fnatic
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total75% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:30
Fnatic 75%Execration 25%
The model gave 75% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 45:03.
Game 2prediction missed34:11
Fnatic 75%Execration 25%
The model gave 75% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 33:40.
Game 3prediction missed24:8
Fnatic 75%Execration 25%
The model gave 75% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 24:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 75%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3