Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 9 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Marssignature
kpii · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 6 games
Grimstroke
Fly · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hyde · 5 games
Army Geniuses
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
Varizh · 9 games
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 493 bans
Mars
356 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
346 picks · 486 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 483 bans
Death Prophet
262 picks · 407 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
Ember Spirit
247 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:29
Talon Esports 66%Army Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 53:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King23savage
Kunkkadb-
Ember SpiritMikoto
MorphlingAzur4
Death Prophetkpii
PugnawoMy
WeaverHyde
TinyNARMAN
GrimstrokeQ
GyrocopterVarizh
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Talon Esports 65%Army Geniuses 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor23savage
Phantom Assassindb-
PuckMikoto
InvokerAzur4
Death Prophetkpii
PugnawoMy
WeaverQ
TinyNARMAN
Earth SpiritHyde
GrimstrokeVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2