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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Bane
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
30%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Cys · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 4 games
0%

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 5 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
33%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
431 picks · 262 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 491 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 502 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
343 picks · 485 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 482 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
262 picks · 402 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
46%
Wraith King
Wraith King
246 picks · 335 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:24
Eternity 51%Felt 49%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Felt in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCarJua
55% · 101 game50% · 62 games
Medusasolji
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightP1
50% · 182 games44% · 61 game
Ember SpiritYellow Flash
Ember Spirit
48% · 40 games
WeaverZore
Weaver
49% · 120 games
LionAfrOmoush
Lion
Game 2prediction missed20:39
Eternity 52%Felt 48%
The model gave 52% on Eternity — the game was taken by Felt in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCarJua
66% · 85 gameslittle data
HuskarYellow Flash
Huskar
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightP1
43% · 22 games51% · 63 games
Queen of Painsolji
Queen of Pain
21% · 31 game
AxeZore
Axe
57% · 13 games
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 56%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2