Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 14 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 491 bans
Mars
354 picks · 500 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 485 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 480 bans
Death Prophet
262 picks · 400 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
Wraith King
246 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total79% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
Lava 21%Thunder Awaken 79%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:04.
Game 2prediction correct21:53
Lava 21%Thunder Awaken 79%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 39:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 79%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2