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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 29 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 25 games
48%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
54%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
75%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 21 game
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 17 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
429 picks · 262 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 491 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 497 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 484 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 476 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
259 picks · 398 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 175 bans
46%
Wraith King
Wraith King
246 picks · 334 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
Hydra 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
49% · 187 games57% · 69 games
Anti-MageKiritych
Anti-Mage
Invoker
InvokerAskold
53% · 147 games47% · 150 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingBlizzy
44% · 166 games62% · 157 games
TinyTheChosenOne
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroZayac
45% · 35 games49% · 154 games
HoodwinkHeaven
Hoodwink
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMuka
46% · 44 games44% · 49 games
OracleVANSKOR
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed28:16
Hydra 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
47% · 143 games55% · 137 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
40% · 172 games57% · 36 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingBlizzy
43% · 109 games52% · 85 games
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressZayac
50% · 185 games55% · 222 games
MiranaHeaven
Mirana
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMuka
51% · 47 games53% · 176 games
Death ProphetVANSKOR
Death Prophet
Game 3prediction missed29:21
Hydra 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
42% · 145 games61% · 153 games
Templar AssassinKiritych
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckAskold
49% · 240 games54% · 193 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingBlizzy
47% · 128 games48% · 171 game
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingZayac
52% · 52 games48% · 29 games
RikiHellscream
Riki
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMuka
51% · 47 games46% · 66 games
OracleVANSKOR
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3