Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Grimstroke
jesv · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
dSa · 3 games
Bane
dSa · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 492 bans
Mars
354 picks · 497 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 486 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 476 bans
Death Prophet
257 picks · 399 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 175 bans
Wraith King
247 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:27
AS Monaco Gambit 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by YNT in 35:45.
Game 2prediction missed41:28
AS Monaco Gambit 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by YNT in 56:15.
Game 3prediction missed38:28
AS Monaco Gambit 60%YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by YNT in 42:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 60%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3