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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 9 games
44%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 7 games
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
miCKe · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 6 games
100%

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 15 games
53%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
bzm · 10 games
80%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
429 picks · 263 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 492 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 500 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 487 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 473 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
255 picks · 387 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
249 picks · 172 bans
47%
Wraith King
Wraith King
247 picks · 336 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:28
Team Liquid 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
little data55% · 61 game
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
48% · 74 games43% · 11 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
47% · 65 games49% · 130 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
49% · 76 games48% · 53 games
Skywrath MageTaiga
Skywrath Mage
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
52% · 60 games59% · 20 games
PugnaMisha
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct23:41
Team Liquid 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMATUMBAMAN
50% · 229 games56% · 196 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
51% · 227 games47% · 112 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
48% · 58 games50% · 405 games
MarsATF
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
45% · 258 games59% · 28 games
EnigmaTaiga
Enigma
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
43% · 135 games55% · 166 games
Shadow DemonMisha
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2