Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Gorillaz-Pride
Snapfire
d1smar · 7 games
Tusksignature
Genek · 7 games
Hoodwink
d1smar · 5 games
Linaoften banned
TaO · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 5 games
Bane
Genek · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Cara · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 492 bans
Mars
350 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 488 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
254 picks · 387 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
247 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:29
Wolf Team 34%Gorillaz-Pride 66%
The model gave 66% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 1:02:29.
Game 2prediction correct20:45
Wolf Team 34%Gorillaz-Pride 66%
The model gave 66% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 44:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 66%
Series resultWolf Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2