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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
23%
Bane
Bane
RR · 11 games
45%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
22%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 7 games
14%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 7 games
14%

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 17 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
MamangDaya · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
431 picks · 263 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
379 picks · 495 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 499 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
342 picks · 491 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
254 picks · 383 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
249 picks · 173 bans
47%
Wraith King
Wraith King
246 picks · 337 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total57% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:28
Execration 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingPalos
49% · 78 games56% · 259 games
Templar AssassinKarma丶
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
53% · 80 games46% · 140 games
Night StalkerEnryu
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsTino-
47% · 159 games48% · 84 games
Shadow ShamanJing
Shadow Shaman
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
43% · 38 games
Bane
BaneRR
55% · 128 games
Game 2prediction missed41:13
Execration 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
52% · 140 games50% · 89 games
BroodmotherEnryu
Broodmother
Mars
MarsTino-
50% · 255 games54% · 274 games
Templar AssassinKarma丶
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
54% · 114 games50% · 340 games
TidehunterJing
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
47% · 123 games
Enchantress
EnchantressRR
40% · 71 game
Game 3prediction correct9:27
Execration 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
38% · 107 games51% · 89 games
Phantom LancerKarma丶
Phantom Lancer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
51% · 58 games60% · 153 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingTino-
48% · 68 games49% · 252 games
WeaverJing
Weaver
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
52% · 151 game
Tidehunter
TidehunterRR
44% · 110 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 57%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3