Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 6 games
Dawnbreaker
Q · 5 games
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 8 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Marssignature
kpii · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 6 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Grimstroke
Fly · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 264 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 493 bans
Mars
351 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
343 picks · 493 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
255 picks · 383 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 336 bans
Grimstroke
247 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
Motivate.Trust Gaming 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 17:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerFearless
Faceless Void23savage
Weaverboombell
Necrophoskpii
45% · 160 games
Queen of PainMikoto
54% · 124 games
Monkey KingHyde
49% · 250 games
BaneQ
Game 2prediction correct18:45
Motivate.Trust Gaming 41%Talon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaFearless
Void SpiritMikoto
Undyingboombell
Razor23savage
52% · 19 games
Night Stalkerkpii
45% · 73 games
GrimstrokeQ
57% · 69 games
IoHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 66%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2