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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Team Bald Reborn

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Excalibur · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Eixn · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pablo · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
430 picks · 262 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 492 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 492 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
344 picks · 493 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 475 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
255 picks · 375 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
249 picks · 334 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
245 picks · 173 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
Alliance 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Alliance in 50:04.
Game 2prediction correct9:36
Alliance 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 39:15.
Game 3prediction missed37:22
Alliance 39%Team Bald Reborn 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 61%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3