Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 19 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 264 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 494 bans
Mars
351 picks · 491 bans
Weaver
346 picks · 495 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 480 bans
Death Prophet
253 picks · 372 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 335 bans
Grimstroke
247 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 74%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total85% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Brame 15%Entity 85%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 28:45.
Game 2prediction correct19:26
Brame 15%Entity 85%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 36:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 85%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2