Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 24 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
433 picks · 265 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 494 bans
Mars
351 picks · 490 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 495 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
252 picks · 371 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 336 bans
Grimstroke
247 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:47
AS Monaco Gambit 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:18.
Game 2prediction correct28:26
AS Monaco Gambit 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 77%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2