Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Snapfire
Jhocam · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Poloson · 2 games
Clockwerk
Poloson · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Grimstroke
Jhocam · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
AlaCrity · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 266 bans
Queen of Pain
384 picks · 492 bans
Mars
350 picks · 490 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 495 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 476 bans
Wraith King
253 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
250 picks · 369 bans
Grimstroke
245 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% T1
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
T1 65%Nigma Galaxy SEA 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 24:27.
Game 2prediction missed13:41
T1 65%Nigma Galaxy SEA 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 40:10.
Game 3prediction missed54:18
T1 65%Nigma Galaxy SEA 35%
The model gave 65% on T1 — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 41:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 65%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3