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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Apes Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Apes Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dalul · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 1 game
100%

UD Vessuwan

Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Meracle · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 267 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
385 picks · 493 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 490 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
350 picks · 494 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 475 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
253 picks · 337 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
249 picks · 368 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
245 picks · 175 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% UD Vessuwan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:21
Team Apes Esports 46%UD Vessuwan 54%
The model gave 54% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 22:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJikroy
45% · 131 game54% · 146 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
44% · 210 games63% · 136 games
BeastmasterRupido
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingdalul
44% · 137 games49% · 187 games
InvokerJG
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLym-
46% · 142 games55% · 151 game
Death ProphetTeehee
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed12:30
Team Apes Esports 50%UD Vessuwan 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Apes Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageJikroy
54% · 67 games55% · 111 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdalul
52% · 198 games47% · 141 game
Storm SpiritJG
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
45% · 153 games44% · 85 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLym-
49% · 52 games54% · 133 games
Nyx AssassinTeehee
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteUD Vessuwan · 55%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2