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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 25 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 22 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 21 game
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 16 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
75%

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 9 games
11%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
20%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
386 picks · 494 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 493 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 489 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 477 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
253 picks · 336 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
248 picks · 362 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
245 picks · 175 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Nemiga Gaming 70%X3 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by X3 in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsAinkrad
49% · 330 games50% · 195 games
Tinynesfeer
Tiny
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
49% · 111 games52% · 343 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTheChosenOne
43% · 162 games53% · 190 games
TimbersawMastery
Timbersaw
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanVANSKOR
45% · 83 games54% · 38 games
Rikivelheor
Riki
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
52% · 141 game51% · 61 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Nemiga Gaming 72%X3 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
53% · 244 games53% · 224 games
Tinynesfeer
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
51% · 260 games50% · 184 games
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingTheChosenOne
42% · 142 games46% · 112 games
BatriderMastery
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
46% · 204 games57% · 248 games
Miranavelheor
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
46% · 211 games54% · 293 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Game 3prediction correct44:34
Nemiga Gaming 72%X3 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:04:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingKiritych
52% · 190 games49% · 276 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaAinkrad
50% · 189 games45% · 33 games
Chaos Knightnesfeer
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingTheChosenOne
42% · 148 games50% · 229 games
TidehunterMastery
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaHeaven
54% · 218 games45% · 183 games
Hoodwinkvelheor
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonVANSKOR
57% · 196 games53% · 220 games
Death ProphetKidaro
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 86%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3